Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 18.927591 21.909022 25.137669 28.885103 33.105883 37.703462 43.080917
2024-12-15 14.580658 18.791397 23.772483 30.057362 37.729585 46.742109 58.077073
2024-12-22 11.220369 15.906807 21.895725 30.010125 40.602754 53.834880 71.469247
2024-12-29 9.479072 14.582379 21.544321 31.550642 45.344279 63.440969 88.679845
2025-01-05 7.918908 13.134764 20.686256 32.128239 48.674681 71.324386 104.164133
2025-01-12 6.609336 11.767270 19.659680 32.210162 51.160354 78.098638 118.512993
2025-01-19 5.587139 10.634209 18.765855 32.283639 53.508648 84.717956 132.978146
2025-01-26 5.188204 10.444038 19.282987 34.521375 59.218789 96.532101 155.636220
2025-02-02 4.703862 10.010123 19.317930 35.942298 63.719855 106.784863 176.569234
2025-02-09 4.268905 9.584387 19.291394 37.217836 68.037203 116.976565 197.958965
2025-02-16 3.713600 8.824428 18.560609 37.175587 70.130456 123.754735 214.392139
2025-02-23 3.137781 7.913483 17.419663 36.254154 70.606184 127.897601 226.812617
2025-03-02 2.631637 7.068498 16.315881 35.325845 71.072512 132.199719 240.023161
2025-03-09 2.317627 6.593734 15.884505 35.623652 73.757819 140.415276 260.211760
2025-03-16 1.982051 5.996708 15.111838 35.157441 74.983386 146.188191 276.625814
2025-03-23 1.852014 5.883220 15.357725 36.759851 80.208501 159.244877 306.150140
2025-03-30 1.665320 5.581039 15.136804 37.355661 83.516055 169.043137 330.478447
2025-04-06 1.468899 5.207633 14.695755 37.424760 85.773261 177.043340 352.020239
2025-04-13 1.298348 4.867744 14.282053 37.499125 88.026523 185.137095 374.101436
2025-04-20 1.272746 4.958712 14.939200 40.040795 95.513614 203.414890 415.465099
2025-04-27 1.201286 4.890962 15.184442 41.653987 101.165946 218.485980 451.603149
2025-05-04 1.127446 4.799184 15.354091 43.101894 106.559835 233.321269 487.939585
2025-05-11 1.000495 4.496787 14.918736 43.053707 108.719218 241.963389 513.052533